Notes on recession risk, leading indicators, and reading the economy early.
A falling stock market is not the same as a recession signal. Here is how to tell a normal pullback from a real warning, why a few bad days rarely matter, and what actually separates market noise from a downturn ahead.
The May 2026 recession probability reading eased across every horizon from April. Near-term odds are calm, the two-year probability fell to 43 percent, and the model's overall state stayed elevated. Here is what moved and what the shape means.
What recession odds are, how a recession probability model reads the yield curve, credit spreads, and three more signals, and why a forward reading of a downturn matters more than the headlines.