Notes on recession risk, leading indicators, and reading the economy early.
Forecasters put 2026 recession odds anywhere from 7 percent to 60 percent. Here is why the predictions diverge so wildly, what the actual signals say right now, and how to read recession risk without picking a side.
An inverted yield curve reliably warns of a recession, but not when one arrives. Here is how long the gap has run historically, why the lag is so wide, and how to read the timing without acting too early.
A recession probability model turns economic signals into a single number, the odds of a recession ahead. Here is how it works, how it is tested, why it reads across multiple time horizons, and what it can and cannot do.
FICO stock lost more than a quarter of its value in a single session. It's a dramatic headline, a poor recession signal, and a real change to who can get a mortgage. Here is how to read all three.
The August 2026 recession probability reading stayed elevated overall, but the near term fell to its lowest in months as business investment turned positive. Here is what moved from July and what the shape means.
Business investment is one of the earliest places a slowdown shows up, because companies cut back on big spending before the economy turns. Here is what it measures, why it leads a recession, and how to read it.
The Fed is weighing higher rates while long-term Treasury yields press toward 5 percent. Here is what rising rates and a higher-for-longer stance mean for recession risk, explained through the signals that actually predict downturns.
The stock market is one of the earliest recession signals and one of the noisiest. Here is why stock prices move before the economy does, why that makes the market a leading indicator, and why it cries wolf so often.
Credit spreads are one of the earliest and most honest warnings of a recession, and one of the least understood. Here is what they are, why a widening spread signals trouble ahead, and what they can and cannot tell you.
The July 2026 recession probability reading stayed elevated overall, with near-term odds easing further and the long horizons little changed. Here is what moved from June and what the shape means.
Prices are high and a lot of people feel squeezed, while headline growth and unemployment look solid. Here is why the mood and the data diverge, why higher prices are not the same as a weakening economy, and what a recession gauge actually measures.
An inverted yield curve is the most reliable recession signal in modern history. Here is what it is, why short-term rates rising above long-term rates warns of a downturn, and what it can and cannot tell you.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in July 2026 for the fifth straight meeting, with three officials dissenting in favor of a hike. Here is how the Fed's rate path feeds into recession risk, through the yield curve and beyond.
The June 2026 recession probability reading held elevated overall. Near-term odds stayed calm while the longer horizons edged higher, firming up after May's sharp pullback. Here is what moved and what the shape means.
A falling stock market is not the same as a recession signal. Here is how to tell a normal pullback from a real warning, why a few bad days rarely matter, and what actually separates market noise from a downturn ahead.
The May 2026 recession probability reading eased across every horizon from April. Near-term odds are calm, the two-year probability fell to 43 percent, and the model's overall state stayed elevated. Here is what moved and what the shape means.
What recession odds are, how a recession probability model reads the yield curve, credit spreads, and three more signals, and why a forward reading of a downturn matters more than the headlines.
The recessionodds.com model updates monthly with the probability of a U.S. recession from 3 to 24 months out. Get the reading in your inbox when it moves.